Kamala Harris’ Conundrum in Winning Over Women of Color

High numbers of Latina and Asian American women have not decided who they are going to vote for in the 2024 election, according to new polling.
A survey conducted by She the People, in partnership with 2040 Strategy Group, shows that 11 percent of Latina women and 23 percent of Asian American women remain undecided—groups Harris needs to secure victory in November.
Both groups traditionally break for the Democrats, with 52 percent of Latina women and 46 percent of Asian women polled indicating that they will vote for the vice president in November. However, recent presidential elections have seen a trend toward Republican candidates among Hispanic and Asian voters.
In 2020, 59 percent of Hispanic voters supported President Biden, compared to 38 percent who supported Trump, a narrower margin than in 2016, when Hillary Clinton beat Trump among Hispanics by 38 points, with 66 percent to his 28 percent, according to the Pew Research Center.
The trend toward Trump was also apparent among Hispanic women voters. Against Hillary Clinton in 2016, Trump won just 28 percent of female Hispanic voters compared to Clinton’s 67 percent, according to Pew. But in 2020, Trump’s share among Latinas rose to 37 percent compared to President Joe Biden’s 61 percent, Pew found.
Meanwhile, 63 percent of Asian American voters across the country voted for Biden, down from 65 percent in 2016, while 31 percent supported Trump, up from 27 percent in the previous election, according to NBC News Exit Polls.
Among Asian women, 60 percent broke for Biden in 2020, compared to 39 percent for Trump—a significant shift from 2016, when 83 percent of Asian American women voted Clinton and 15 percent voted for Trump, according to the The Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF).
Although Latina and Asian women still overwhelmingly break for the Democrats, with Harris currently leading Trump nationally by a slim 2.7-point margin, it is vital for her to secure the support of women of color, according to Aimee Alison, founder of She the People.
“Women of color will be the margin of victory this election cycle, as they were in 2020, and this polling proves how true that is,” she told Newsweek. “The poll results call attention to how Harris should appeal to subgroups of women of color to maximize support and turnout.
“For Latina and Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders women, the data shows that to appeal to their sense of solidarity with other women, they need to hear more from the candidate on her identity as a Black and Asian woman. Simply messaging that Kamala Harris could be America’s first woman president increases support,” she continued.
According to She the People’s research, simply telling respondents she was Black and a woman increased Harris’ approval among 10.5 percent of respondents. The poll surveyed 1,478 female voters between September 5 and 10 and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The Harris campaign has not led with her identity as an Asian woman or as the potential first female president since she became the candidate in July, instead opting to campaign on her economic policies, as well as her experience as a prosecutor.
In contrast, Hillary Clinton’s unsuccessful 2016 campaign leaned heavily on her gender, frequently highlighting the cracks she and her supporters were making in what she called “the highest, hardest glass ceiling.”
“I am running because I believe that I am the best person to do this job at this moment, for all Americans, regardless of race and gender,” Harris, whose mother was Indian and whose father is from Jamaica, told CNN in an interview in August.
But Polling by She the People suggests Harris’ strategy could come at the expense of winning over undecided women of color. Some 19 percent of undecided women of color had a positive response to “control messaging” that frames Harris as a historic candidate due to her identity as a Black woman.
Meanwhile, 9 percent viewed her more negatively, while 72 percent said it made no difference to their view of her.
“The campaign still has a real opportunity to use targeted messaging to connect with undecided voters by telling people who Harris is, and by clarifying the differences—not tacking to the center and blurring the lines—between her and Trump that are certain to affect their lives as women, as people of color, and as members of their communities,” said Tom Ogorzalek, cofounder and Head of Public Affairs, 2040 Strategy Group, said in a press release.
“Women of color have the power to close the gap in numbers and elect Harris. They are force multipliers—as more of them start championing Harris as our next president, they will pull support from their communities and get her to the Oval Office,” Alison added.
However, she cautioned that “women of color are like any other group—their vote needs to be earned.”
“Harris needs to work for each and every vote, and she can do that by turning the campaign’s attention back to the Democratic Party’s base—women of color—in the final days of the election. This is her best chance for victory.”
But Carrie Baker, professor of women, gender and sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts, disagreed.
“I don’t agree that Harris should focus on her identity as a Black woman in order to win over women of color,” she told Newsweek.
“Raising race or gender may win some voters, but it is divisive and would likely alienate many more, especially young white men,” she added. According to a study by the Young Men’s Research Initiative conducted from July 9 to July 23, men aged 18 to 29 were more likely to be supportive of female candidates over Trump when presented with their policies, including support for high-paying jobs and affordable housing, rather than when they were presented with arguments centered around the importance of having the first female president. The study surveyed 1,092 men in that age group.
“Harris has a 46/30 advantage over Trump among Asian American women and a 52/30 percent advantage over Trump among Latinas. This edge is significant. The undecided voters will likely fall disproportionately for Harris as well,” Baker continued.
Although the She the People research showed that framing her campaign more around her identity could win over undecided women of color, it also showed that they respond positively to targeted messaging around certain policy issues such as protecting abortion rights, protecting book bans in schools, and opposing sending weapons to Israel while protecting the nation’s right to self-defense.
According to the poll, 29 percent of undecided women of color responded positively to messaging surrounding protecting abortion rights, while 31 percent said an anti books ban message gave them a more positive view of Harris, and 27 percent said messaging surrounding opposing weapons sales to Israel gave them a more positive view of the vice president’s campaign.
Some 31 percent of undecided women of color also responded positively to messaging describing Trump’s criminal background and Harris’s experience as a “smart on crime”
prosecutor who used the law to protect vulnerable people.
“I think she should focus on the issues these women care about (affordable housing, fair wage jobs, reproductive rights, etc.) and maintain her positive and energetic campaign,” Baker said.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign via email for comment.